UFC 91 Randy Couture vs Brock Lesnar - Can Randy Beat The Odds Again? Or Is This a Passing Of The Torch?

Mac Wilson - Is it just me or is Randy Couture being put on a pedastle? Can he possibly carry on his legacy forever? What is it going to take to overcome the legend of Randy Couture? Probably not the first questions that came up in your mind when you found out that Randy Couture would be defending his UFC Heavyweight Title against Brock “The Viking Gorilla” Lesnar. But are they valid in properly sizing up this Saturday’s matchup?

Don’t get me wrong, I love Randy as much as the next MMA fanatic. But his next opponent is a 300 pound animal and wont be bullied around like Randy does to everyone else. We have all seen Randy pull off stunning and convincing victories over top notch competition over the years, but I wonder how long he can continue with his current commitment in weight division. Will he ever be forced to move to 205 and compete on a more even playing field? And if it comes to it, what would make him choose to do so?

Now I’ve been thinking long and hard about this matchup between Brock and Randy and I have been trying to predict an outcome and it has not come easy. But I believe that Brock Lesnar will leave Las Vegas Sunday as the UFC Heavyweight Champion by TKO.

I say this with absolute belief that Randy Couture cannot be counted out. He is one of the most, if not the most intelligent fighter out there.  He also has stellar conditioning and does a great job of controlling the fights where he sees most of his successes.  But this is a different animal. Randy has few options. He may see an opportunity in putting the wrestler on his back.  However in order to do that he must score a takedown. Now I know Randy slamed Gonzaga into the basement and tossed Tim Sylvia around like a lanky boring ragdoll, but Brock was a Big Ten Conference Champion, then NCAA 1st runner up and then NCAA Champion next year. Although, we havn’t seen his sprawl, maybe Randy can overcome it. But something tells me it’s pretty strong.

 
Let’s assume he has Brock on the ground, is he really going to land a submission? He has landed 2 submissions in his career. One was a rear naked choke on a complete nobody 56 seconds into the first round in his first fight, and one was an anaconda choke on Mike Van Arsdale which took literally 3 rounds to lock up. There is the possibility of a ground and pound from that position but I think it would take all his focus and energy keeping Brock down on the ground. Brock is most likely not going to have a problem getting back to his feet or simply muscleing Randy off him. With both fighters not wanting to be on their backs, I’m assuming this is going to be where the main story of the fight will take place and unfold. And if I had to guess who will win the struggle of keeping the other on their back, I’m going with Brock. Brock wins the ground game with a possible ground and pound TKO.

Another place where we could compare them is in the clinching game. This is patented Randy Couture, take your opponent into the cage, work your dirty boxing, keep them constantly working, use this to wear them out and work for a takedown. Since I don’t think that the ground is where Randy will want to go even if he can take it there, I’m going to focus on the clinching and dirty boxing. As far as Greco Roman Wrestling in MMA goes, Randy is one of the best. But I have the feeling that Brock isn’t going to play around in this space and let Randy work on him and land his vicious dirty boxing that we all know and love. I feel if Brock wants out of there he will make a way out. I know Randy has insane conditioning but there is no possible way he COULD out-work Brock in the upper body.  Brock could muscle his way off the cage, spin Randy up against the cage easily, or even land a takedown of his own. I can’t wait to see what Randy does in the clinch. But I have to give it to someone. I’m not positive about this but I’m giving the clinch game to Brock.

The other option Randy has, is striking with Brock. This is a game of roulette as the only striking we have seen from Brock has basically been devastating and I feel crazy saying this but his striking has impressed me. He looks awkward as all hell, but he has landed some good shots, and I don’t know anyone who would choose to stand in front of those if they had any other choice. Randy may just try to bounce around on his feet for awhile to see what kind of striking Brock has to offer. But he wont have all day because Brock will undoubtedly be moving forward and Randy is going to need some serious lateral evasion and explosive combinations to be successful. Now word has it that Randy is working on just that in preparation for this fight. I will give Randy the edge in this department but one punch from Brock could end his night early.

I also have to give the mental advantage to Brock as he has worked very hard at this and can easily bring his competitive edge from college wrestling into MMA. He has worked extremely hard to get here and competed at elite levels before so I don’t think this will phase him. Not that Randy hasn’t but Randys only real motivation here is not gettnig beat up and “getting back in there and competing”. Brock will be prepared and ready to go with one thing on his mind, becoming champion of the UFC. He has stated that this is all he has left and he isn’t going anywhere and Randy has had 15 months off and will possibly have some ring rust.

Randy has stated that he believes that where he has the advantage is in the Mixed Martial Arts aspect of things which may sound blatantly obvious but keep in mind that he is excellent at shutting down opponents and always has a clever game plan which he sticks to. Randy is a crafty veteran with a lot of tricks up his sleeve. I am very interested to see what he does off his back if he is stuck there, how he does in the clinch, his luck in the striking game and the biggest question on my mind is if he can control Brock like he has every other opponent that he has beat.

I’m also fearing that this fight may be the end of Randy Couture in the Heavyweight division. I too, enjoy the storyline of the 45 year old that fights one weight class higher than he should and beats the life out of everyone they throw at him. But it has to end sometime. And with the odds of a Fedor fight looking grim, and the lack of thrilling matchups for him in the Heavyweight division otherwise, I think the logical decision (if he loses) is to go down to 205 and really showcase what he can do to guys that weigh 20+ pounds less than what he is used to (in the case of Brock, about 60 pounds less). Besides, no one can argue that there are more exciting fights at Heavyweight for him. LHW is where he belongs and it would be a shame if he didn’t mix it up with that bunch before the end of his career.

Brock, however, I believe is a new breed of Heavyweight. One who cuts the weight to make it to 265, combined with immense strength and explosiveness, and is built like a small Sherman tank. Most of the other competitors aren’t much to look at as they seem like the bunch who just couldn’t make the weight cut to 205. They are often flabby, and lack a build and the athleticism that comes close to that of Lesnar.

This fight will definitely be testing the limits of everyone’s favourite underdog, Randy Couture. I just don’t know if I can see it going his way on Saturday night. As I said, you cannot count Randy out because of his strategic advantage and the amount of tools at his disposal, but one has to wonder if his tool kit is enough for this job. I don’t want to risk coming off as that guy that “always counts Randy out” but I just don’t see it happening. My heart says Randy and my brain says Brock.

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